Permit it not be said that we shy away from a popular taking, because this one is positively hot: England are going to win the league.
Well give you a moment to come to terms with the sheer bravery of that statement. Done? Nice. But now weve all accepted England are going to win the league the more interesting problem becomes when are they going to win it, and which options might be the funniest because that, at the end of the day, is what matters, isnt it?
But lets run through some possible situations.
First off our starting point. Liverpool have 70 points from 29 gamesand Arsenal 58, also with nine games to go having won their game in hand against Chelsea this weekend.
Mathematics fans will already have noted that means the most items Arsenal can end with is 85, so 16 factors is the magic number for England, whether those points are those they collect themselves or are otherwise dropped by Arsenal. Or and lets face it this is largely the most probable solution a combination of the preceding.
Did Bruno Fernandes effectively end Arsenals title hopes? Did he balls
April 13: The earliest England can get the Premier League
Clear starting point is obvious. But hubristically rude have Liverpool turn in this months so-called name so-called culture that they arent even bothering to play any more league games for the rest of this quarter.
So this one relies heavily on some Arsenal nonsense that, while unlikely, absolutely cannot be ruled out at this time.
Arsenal still have one more Premier League games before Liverpool play again, so the quickest way to 16 details won/lost looks something like this :
* Arsenal lose to Fulham on April 1
* Liverpool beat Everton on April 2
* Arsenal lose to Everton on April 5
* Liverpool beat Fulham on April 6
* Arsenal lose hit Brentford on April 12
* England hit West Ham on April 13
In the above scenario, England would actually only need a draw against West Ham to rule Arsenal out, but well go for a get here because even then Nottingham Forest remain technically involved. The above gives us Liverpool on 79 points, and currently Nottingham Forest with 54 points from 29 games can still reach 81.
Forest have three league games between now and April 13 Man United at home, Villa away, and Everton at home and we will be needing them to lose one or fail to win two.
The 79 points Liverpool have in the above scenario is already now enough to put Chelsea ( 76 max ) and Man City ( 75 max ) out of their misery, while even with their game in hand Newcastle can only reach 77 at best if theyve got any ideas about pulling Liverpool pants down for a second time.
May 10-11: Liverpool win the Premier League against Arsenal
Among the many assumptions being made here, surely the safest is that Liverpool v Arsenal will be played on Sunday May 11 rather than Saturday May 10 but for now that is every bit as much conjecture as the idea that Liverpool have won the league. Technically, it might not be the case.
So what do Arsenal, and indeed Liverpool need to do ( or not do ) to keep the title race alive into the final few weeks so that Liverpool can claim it with victory against their closest challengers?
Obviously there are multiple routes that can lead us here, but the crucial numbers are that by May 10 or 11, Liverpools lead must be somewhere between four and nine points. Any less than four and they cannot quite get far enough ahead with two games still to play. More than nine and the game is already up.
For our scenario lets try and get them six points clear. Thats the most fun one, because it would mean that a draw for Arsenal would just about keep them alive and a win would officially Make Things Interesting.
Getting the lead down from 12 points to nine is easy enough it is entirely in Arsenals hands to do so. After that, we will need something from Liverpool.
It only needs something to happen to Liverpool in one game, as long as Arsenal win all of theirs in the meantime. Stop laughing, they might. No, seriously, they might: Arsenal are not having a lovely time of it currently in games not involving PSV, but they do have a decent-looking run until that big date at Anfield.
Were going to keep things simple here and just rely here on the age-old truism that in derby games The Formbook Goes Out The Window even though it doesnt in fact do that.
* Arsenal beat Fulham on April 1
* Liverpool lose to Everton on April 2
That might already seem like a stretch, but then we do need some more things
* Arsenal then also take maximum points against Everton, Brentford, Ipswich, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth ( the three trickiest opponents on paper there are all at home, too )
* Liverpool come a cropper against one of Fulham, West Ham, Leicester, Tottenham or Chelsea.
We dont think were speaking out of turn here in suggesting Chelsea away is our likeliest route to success here.
So there you have it. All we need is for Arsenal to win six straight games while Liverpool lose two out of six in a run that features four conspicuously bad football teams and weve got ourselves an Anfield title decider. Well not really a decider. Liverpool would probably still win the title even if they lose it. But that wont stop the Super Sunday graphic-and-montage team and its not stopping us.
And, obviously, should a visibly weary Liverpool contrive to make a bollocks of two of those games, Arsenal have one games wriggle room of their own, and so on.
Clive Tyldesley: Arsenal fan chorus was sharper than any Sky Sports scripted poetry
May 3-4: Liverpool win title and Arsenal have to give them a guard of honour at Anfield the following week
We make no apologies for this being our favourite option of the lot. You can call it bias if you like, and in a way it is. We are enormously biased towards the funniest outcome in any given situation.
It is our unshakeable belief that the only way to save VAR is to stop poring over pixels in a futile bid to try and get every decision correct and instead to just go with whatever the team agrees is the funniest outcome from any VAR review.
And the funniest outcome for this title race is for Liverpool to wrap up the title the week before Arsenals visit so that Mikel Artetas team are obliged to either give them the standard guard of honour for newly-crowned champions or be harshly considered pricks if they refuse.
Were not really sure why or how the guard of honour became a thing, but were glad it has and doubly glad that the seemingly reasonable Why the f**k should we? position is considered bad form. Again: because its funny. There really isnt any good reason why Arsenals players should be forced to prostrate themselves before Liverpools in this way, but we dont make the rules. We simply laugh at the outcome.
And the worry for Arsenal fans now is that this seems an alarmingly plausible occurrence. There are multiple combinations of extremely believable results that lead us to a situation where Liverpool start the weekend of May 3-4 with a lead of no more than 12 points and end it with a lead of at least 10, which is what we need.
Really, it looks a lot like the previous scenario. If Arsenal take maximum points from their next six games ( Fulham, Everton, Brentford, Ipswich, Palace, Bournemouth ) then that would take them to 73 at the start and 76 by the end of that pre-Anfield weekend.
We would therefore need Liverpool to have no more than 85 points by the start of that weekend and at least 86 by the end of it.
Liverpool cannot get to more than 85 before that weekend, because they only have five games before and are currently on 70. Not even Arne Slot can spirit up more than 15 points in five games. Hes a fool to have even considered it.
If Arsenal and Liverpool win all their games between now and that first weekend in May, even an Arsenal win over Bournemouth will see Liverpool crowned if they avoid defeat at Chelsea.
And again, obviously the same applies if they simply match each others results whatever they may be, 12 is the maximum lead we need Liverpool to have heading into that weekend, and thats where it currently stands.
April 20: The earliest Liverpool can relinquish their Premier League lead
Twelve points sounds like a heck of a lot of points, right? And it is. It is a very big lead. But again, thanks to Liverpools Icarus-sun-proximity decision not to play any more Premier League games for three weeks means it can actually evaporate quite quickly. In theory.
All that it needs is for Arsenal to win their next four games and for Liverpool to lose their next three, and all that requires is for each of us up to and including Arsenal and Liverpool themselves to simply forget everything we have learned and come to know during this season to date.
But the fact is that this sequence of results is technically possible.
* Arsenal beat Fulham on April 1
* Liverpool lose to Everton on April 2
* Arsenal beat Everton on April 5
* Liverpool lose to Fulham on April 6
* Arsenal beat Brentford on April 12
* Liverpool lose to West Ham on April 13
* Arsenal beat Ipswich on April 20
If all that happens the 14-goal swing Arsenal would also need in their favour is surely a formality, and would leave Liverpool heading to Leicester later on April 20 needing a result to reclaim top spot amid what would by now be an absolutely unstoppable wave of discourse and viral AFTV videos reaching numbers that would see questions raised in parliament.
May 10-11: Arsenal win the title at Anfield
It wouldnt quite be 1989 all over again, but it is still just about within the realms of mathematical if not really footballing possibility that Arsenal could yet wrap up the title themselves with a win at Anfield.
We start as above, obviously, and then dollop a load more absolute nonsense on top to get this :
* Arsenal beat Fulham on April 1
* Liverpool lose to Everton on April 2
* Arsenal beat Everton on April 5
* Liverpool lose to Fulham on April 6
* Arsenal beat Brentford on April 12
* Liverpool lose to West Ham on April 13
* Arsenal beat Ipswich on April 20
* Liverpool lose to Leicester on April 20
* Arsenal beat Crystal Palace on April 26
* Liverpool lose to Tottenham on April 27
* Arsenal beat Bournemouth on May 3-4
* Liverpool lose to Chelsea on May 3-4
See? Its extremely plausible. And if that extremely plausible sequence of results comes to pass, Arsenal will travel to Anfield with 76 points to Liverpools 70.
At which point again providing Forest have continued to spill a few points along the way all Arsenal need to do is beat a team thats just lost to Leicester and Spurs for crying out loud and theyll be nine points clear with two games remaining and the title in the bag. But theyll probably bottle it, wont they?
